One year, using your figures
Revenue you are leaving behind
R 356 400If the share of guests who come back moves from 15% to 45%, that is roughly 162 additional stays a year — in the same rooms, with the same staff, and R 53 460 of commission you never pay, because a returning guest books direct.
A guest is worth, todayR 1 188at a 15% return rate
A guest would be worthR 1 584at a 45% return rate
That is 33% more from exactly the same guest, in exactly the same room. The second stay carries no commission at all — which is why the business that keeps its guests can outbid the one that does not, for the very same booking.
Commission per new bookingR 330
Commission paid per yearR 178 200
Value against commission3.6 : 1
Margin on a direct return stayR 1 320
Gross-profit opportunityR 213 840
Return stays per year, modelled81 → 243
iA planning estimate, not a forecast or a guarantee. It counts one return stay per guest, treats first bookings as commissionable and return bookings as direct, and excludes seasonality, occupancy limits, cancellations, VAT and operating costs.